Richard Boyd Barrett (Dún Laoghaire, People Before Profit Alliance)
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426. To ask the Minister for Children, Equality, Disability, Integration and Youth the estimated full-year cost of providing free childcare for all children under five years; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [28839/24]

Roderic O'Gorman (Dublin West, Green Party)
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The Deputy has requested the full year cost of providing free childcare for all children under five years.

According to the most recent Census data, there are 293,769 children under 5 in Ireland.

To generate the cost of providing free early learning and childcare to these children, it is assumed that they avail of a full time place, on a year round basis (52 weeks per year).

According to the latest data from the Annual Early Years Sector Profile Survey, the median weekly fee for a full time place is €197.43.

To calculate the cost of this measure, the below formula was used.

(number of children under 5) x (number of weeks of early learning and childcare used) x (mean weekly fee for a full time place)

This formula generates a cost of €3.01bn.

This estimate assumes that 100% of children under 5 will avail of a full time place on a year round basis and does not take account of a range of factors including parental preference and work patterns, current usage patterns, existing State supports and availability.

According to a recent survey carried out by IPSOS on behalf of my Department in 2023, just under half of children not yet in school were cared for at home (45%), while over one in four (27%) attended a centre-based setting.

From August 2024, the combined durations of Maternity, Paternity and Parent’s Leave and Benefit will equate to 46 weeks paid leave for a two-parent family. In addition, 16 weeks of unpaid maternity leave is available, 26 weeks of unpaid parental leave is available and, as part of the Work Life Balance and Miscellaneous Provisions Act 2023, the right to request flexible working for parents and carers and remote working for all employees has commenced.

The ECCE programme already provides two year of pre-school to every child (over 3 hours per day, 5 days per week, 38 per year) at no cost to parents.

Richard Boyd Barrett (Dún Laoghaire, People Before Profit Alliance)
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427. To ask the Minister for Children, Equality, Disability, Integration and Youth the estimated full-year cost of providing free after school childcare for all children in primary school; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [28840/24]

Roderic O'Gorman (Dublin West, Green Party)
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The Deputy has requested the full year cost of providing free childcare for all children in primary school.

According to Department of Education data, there were 558,143 children enrolled in primary school in 2023.

To generate the cost of providing free childcare to these children, it is assumed that they avail of 20 hours of childcare per week in term (38 weeks per year) and they avail of childcare on a full time basis out of term (14 weeks per year).

According to the latest data from the Annual Early Years Sector Profile Survey, the median hourly fee for school-age childcare in term is €5.00 while the median weekly fee for school-age childcare out of term is €165.

To calculate cost of childcare "in term" the following formula was used:

(number of children enrolled in primary school) x (number of in term weeks) x (number of hours per week) x (median hourly fee for childcare in term time)

This generates an in term cost of €2.12bn.

To calculate cost of childcare "out of term" the following formula was used:

(number of children enrolled in primary school) x (number of out of term weeks) x (median weekly fee for childcare out of term)

This generates an out of term cost of €1.29bn.

Combining the in term and out of term costs, the total full year cost is estimated to be €3.41bn.

This estimate assumes that 100% of primary school children will participate in every available hour of childcare in term and out of term and does not take account of a range of factors including parental preference and work patterns, current usage patterns and availability.

According to a recent survey carried out by IPSOS on behalf of my Department in 2023, parental care was the main form of childcare for school-going children in term (62%) and out of term (66%), while the percentage that used centre-based childcare in term and out of term was 14% and 4% respectively.

Richard Boyd Barrett (Dún Laoghaire, People Before Profit Alliance)
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428. To ask the Minister for Children, Equality, Disability, Integration and Youth the estimated full-year cost of increasing spending on childcare to 1% of GDP. [28841/24]

Roderic O'Gorman (Dublin West, Green Party)
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Over the past nine budgets, investment in Early Learning and Care (ELC) and School-Age Childcare (SAC) has risen from €260 million in 2015 to €1.1 billion in 2024, reaching the First 5 investment target 5 years ahead of time.

In 2022, Ireland’s GDP at constant prices was €475 billion. To increase spending to 1% of GDP, equalling €4.7 billion, an additional investment of €3.6 billion would be necessary.

It is important to note that GDP is a misleading indicator in the Irish context. The OECD emphasises that, in the Irish context, “one should rely on other indicators” as GDP gives an inaccurate indicator of the country’s economic health.

A modified GNI was recommended by the Economic Statistics Review Group as a more useful comparator. This is designed to exclude globalisation effects that are disproportionally impacting the measurement of the size of the Irish economy. Figures on Ireland’s modified GNI in 2023 are not yet available however in 2022, Ireland’s modified GNI at current prices was €273 billion. To increase spending to 1% of modified GNI in 2022, equalling €2.7 billion, an additional investment of €1.6 billion would be necessary.

The First 5 Strategy published in 2018, commit the Government to at least doubling public spending on ELC and SAC by 2028. This target was reached in 2023, five years ahead of schedule. A revised investment target was set in the second implementation plan for First 5, which I published in November 2023. This specifies that, over the period 2023-2028, Ireland will work to close the existing gap in public investment in early learning and care against the EU average.

Richard Boyd Barrett (Dún Laoghaire, People Before Profit Alliance)
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429. To ask the Minister for Children, Equality, Disability, Integration and Youth the estimated full-year cost of increasing wages for all childcare workers by €2 an hour via a public subsidy. [28842/24]

Roderic O'Gorman (Dublin West, Green Party)
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I firmly believe the level of pay for early years educators and school-age childcare practitioners should reflect the value of their work for children, families, society and the economy.

The State is not the employer and therefore does not set the pay or conditions for employees in either early learning and care (ELC) or school-age childcare (SAC) services.

However, there is now, through the Joint Labour Committee (JLC) process, a formal mechanism established by which employer and employee representatives can negotiate minimum pay rates for ELC and SAC services, which are set down in Employment Regulation Orders (EROs). This is an independent process from the Department and neither I, nor my officials, have any role in the proceedings of the JLC and any associated negotiated minimum pay rates, the cost of which is borne by the employer.

Among other objectives, Core Funding supports the ability of service providers to meet the additional costs resulting from the EROs for Early Years Services, which came into effect in September 2022, as it provides increases in funding to early learning and childcare service providers to support improvements in staff wages, alongside a commitment to freeze parental fees.

On the basis of 2024 data supplied by Partner Services taking part in the Core Funding scheme, the estimated annual costs to employers of raising all the minimum pay rates specified in the EROs (for different grades and qualification levels) by the rates proposed in the question (making assumptions specified below in relation to equivalent increases for other roles specified in the EROs and accounting for proportional or no increases required for those above ERO rates or above the proposed increase) are set out in the table:

However, where a €2 per hour increase was sought for all staff, equally, the total estimated employer cost would be approximately €152 million taking in to account the relevant assumptions made below.

In relation to the estimates above, the following should be noted:

• The cost estimates are based on staff who had an hourly wage recorded in service providers’ submissions for Core Funding, but the Core Funding data has been extrapolated to provide an estimate for all staff working in the sector.
• Cost estimates are based on the most recent data available to the Department which was provided by service providers in May 2024, this data was provided prior to the new EROs for Early Years Services came into force on 24 June 2024.
• Calculations are there based on minimum rates of pay set out in the initial ERO which came in to effect in September 2022.
• The estimated costs are for the additional cost to employers of bringing staff, from their current wage or the minimum pay rates set out in the EROs agreed in September 2022, whichever is higher, up to the new pay rate as listed in the request. E.g. for an early years educator, costs are estimated based on current rate of pay of €13.00 (Initial ERO minimum rate for Educators) + increased listed of €2.
• Calculations are based on wage-data available at a point in time. Some services may have increased wages more recently, which would reduce the cost to services of moving from current wage-rates to the propose wage rates in the question.
• The cost estimates only relate to staff and managers covered by the current EROs, i.e. the estimates exclude the cost of ancillary staff.
• The cost estimates do not attempt to account for the potential cost implications for the wages of staff who are currently earning more than the increased rates above current ERO minimum rates.
• It should be noted that the figures in the table are the additional cost to employers, rather than the additional costs to the State. Core Funding offers a contribution to staff costs. The €287m allocated for Core Funding may already support some employers to pay wage rates above ERO minimum rates.
• The figures in the table do not take into account the income currently received by those working in the sector who are self-employed and who derive their income from profits rather than wages.

Richard Boyd Barrett (Dún Laoghaire, People Before Profit Alliance)
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430. To ask the Minister for Children, Equality, Disability, Integration and Youth the estimated full-year cost of increasing childcare subsidies to 100% of fees paid by parents availing of childcare subsidies. [28843/24]

Roderic O'Gorman (Dublin West, Green Party)
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The Deputy has requested the full year cost of increasing subsidies to 100% of fees paid by parents availing of early learning and childcare subsidies.

It is assumed that the Deputy is referring to the National Childcare Scheme (NCS) which is provided by my Department to offset the cost of early learning childcare to parents.

My Department does not hold individualised fee data for parents as these are local agreements between parents and providers; instead an average weekly full time fee derived from the Annual Early Years Sector Profile 2023 is used in the below calculations.

Assuming a 45-hour week for all children, officials in my Department estimated the cost of increasing the NCS hourly minimum (universal) subsidy so that all fees are covered by the NCS. The below new NCS minimum (universal) subsidy was calculated to achieve the desired outcome.

The ESRI SWITCH model was then used to estimate the quantum of this change and applied to the Departments baseline cost of the NCS for 2024. The results are given in the below table.

As fees can vary from service to service and depending on parent’s usage, impact estimates must be made as an average of the overall parental financial contribution to fees for their early learning and childcare.

The impact of this change will also vary based on the income level of the applicant. Parents on the maximum subsidies under the income assessed subsidy, that is those on annual income of €26,000 and below will see no change in their fee, as they are already in receipt of the highest available subsidy. For remaining parents, with income above €26,000 under the income assessed subsidy, reductions in fees will vary according to income levels, with those currently in receipt of the lowest subsidies benefiting the most.

These estimates come with some important caveats. Firstly, the above costings are based on the NCS as it operates currently and its rates as time of this PQ being asked. As part of Budget 2024 I announced an increase to the NCS universal subsidy from €1.40 per hour to €2.14 and an extension of the NCS to a larger cohort of childminders from September 2024. As these are not yet implemented, the impact of these changes have not been factored into the above costing.

Finally, the costings are on the basis of a static system; that is, the model assumes that the level of usage of eligible early learning and childcare remains static. Any changes to subsidies may create a change in behaviours in families, for example, women returning to workforce and using formal early learning and childcare for the first time.