Colm Brophy (Dublin South West, Fine Gael)
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On behalf of the committee, I welcome Ms Noelle O'Connell, CEO of European Movement Ireland, and her colleague, Ms Lorna Hayes, deputy CEO over policy and research. Today's discussion will be one of our regular discussions on the results of European Movement Ireland's EU poll, this one for 2024, which was conducted across Ireland and Northern Ireland. It seems like only a few months ago that we last engaged with the witnesses, but we are delighted to have them back.

Before we begin our session, there is a note on privilege that I must read, so I ask everyone to bear with me. All witnesses are reminded of the long-standing parliamentary practice that they should not criticise or make charges against any person or entity by name or in such a way as to make him, her or it identifiable or otherwise engage in speech that might be regarded as damaging to the good name of that person or entity. Therefore, if their statements are potentially defamatory in respect of an identifiable person or entity, they will be directed to discontinue their remarks. It is imperative that they comply.

Members are reminded of the long-standing parliamentary practice to the effect that they should not comment on, criticise or make charges against either a person outside the Houses or an official either by name or in such a way as to make him or her identifiable. I remind members of the constitutional requirement that they must be physically present within the confines of Leinster House in order to participate in public meetings. I cannot permit a member to participate where he or she is not adhering to this requirement. Therefore, any member who attempts to participate from outside the precincts will be asked to leave.

With that bit of housekeeping done and dusted, we can commence our session. I call on Ms O'Connell to make her opening statement.

Ms Noelle O'Connell:

Go raibh maith agaibh as an gcuireadh bheith libh inniú. It is a privilege for European Movement Ireland to be here to discuss the findings of our most recent 2024 EU opinion poll, which is the only dedicated poll conducted throughout the island of Ireland on EU issues and is something that European Movement Ireland has been doing since 2013.

This year, our opinion poll results are particularly pertinent, given that the 2024 European Parliament elections will be in a few weeks time. We are all aware that these elections are taking place in challenging times, which is in marked contrast to previous elections over the past nine parliamentary terms. Arguably, the 2024 elections are being conducted against a backdrop of an emboldened far right in a range of countries, including the Netherlands, Austria, France, Poland, Hungary and Italy. This shifting political reality in Europe poses unique threats to the stability and effectiveness of the next Parliament. A stronger representation of the far right in the European Parliament, in addition to a growing rise in populism, will likely lead to greater fragmentation and uncertainty and will undoubtedly make policymaking that is consistent with EU values more challenging.

In these uncertain times, our most recent EU opinion poll provides some important insights into public sentiment in Ireland on the EU and underlines how important it is for our national legislators, MEPs and the EU institutions more generally to not only listen to voters' concerns, but also to work to engage and resolve them.

Since 2013, European Movement Ireland has carried out annual independent polling on Ireland’s relationship with the EU across a number of different metrics. Our efforts to track and analyse Irish sentiment towards the EU is unique and the poll is a valuable tool for measuring public opinion as regards Ireland's membership of the EU. The regularity with which we carry out this exercise allows us to not only capture sentiment as a snapshot in time, but also to track changes and to present trends on Irish EU sentiment that have occurred over the years. Bearing the usual caveats and health warnings around opinion polls in mind, we will endeavour to highlight a few points from our results this year that members may find interesting.

Despite a decline of 4% on last year’s poll, the overwhelming majority of people in Ireland, at 84%, and Northern Ireland, at 76%, believe that Ireland should remain a member of the EU. This represents a drop from 88% last year. While consistently high support for Ireland remaining in the EU is welcome, the poll findings indicate that this positive sentiment masks a growing dissatisfaction with the EU’s performance on certain issues. When we asked whether people felt that the EU was moving in the right direction, there was a significant decline in both jurisdictions in respondents who agreed with this statement. A drop from 58% last year to 49% this year perhaps indicates a degree of hesitancy and increased concern as regards the EU’s performance. Sadly, the metrics do not enable us to make assumptions regarding the individual reasons behind this decline, but some of the follow-up survey questions, which we will go into in greater detail in a moment, point to a number of areas of EU action where there is evident dissatisfaction among the Irish public.

For the second year in a row, we asked respondents whether they believed there would be a united Ireland in the EU in the next ten years. The results were almost on a par with last year's findings, with 47% agreeing in Northern Ireland and 25% in Ireland.

This year for the first time, we asked respondents to rate the EU’s performance across a range of policy areas on where people saw it performing strongest and weakest. Policy areas that we asked about included defence, security, the environment, migration, tax, agriculture, trade and digital regulation. Close to half of respondents in Ireland, at 46%, and 55% in Northern Ireland believed that the EU’s performance was strongest in the area of trade. Close to one in two of respondents in Ireland believed that the EU was weakest in the area of migration, at 46%. This is perhaps unsurprising, given that migration has been a major policy challenge for the EU and has dominated public agendas both here in Ireland and across Europe in recent months.

I will invite my colleague, Ms Hayes, to go through some of the other findings.

Ms Lorna Hayes:

In a year in which we mark the 20th anniversary of the largest ever enlargement of the EU, the poll shows strong support for enlargement. Across both jurisdictions, 57% of respondents were in favour of more countries joining the EU, with approximately one in five in Ireland being against the idea.

Over two years on from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, close to half of respondents in Ireland stated that they were dissatisfied with the EU’s response, with only a third being satisfied.

On the question of whether people in Ireland and Northern Ireland were satisfied with the EU’s response to the Israel-Gaza conflict, even greater dissatisfaction levels were found.

In fact, this was the area with the highest levels of dissatisfaction expressed in the poll. Two thirds, or 64% in Ireland and 72% in Northern Ireland, were dissatisfied, which is perhaps reflective of how the EU has struggled to deliver a co-ordinated and effective response.

Against a backdrop of an increasingly turbulent geopolitical context and Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine, the responses to questions on security and defence were informative. More than one third of respondents do not believe that the EU can still rely on the US for defence co-operation, with only a slightly smaller proportion still confident that the EU can rely on the US. Interestingly, in the follow-up question, and in an increase from 2023, the majority of respondents believe Ireland should strengthen its defence and security co-operation with the EU. However, approximately one third were against this.

Of concern in our poll this year is the growing lack of trust in political institutions in both Ireland and Northern Ireland, which could be reflective of the global trend of increasing polarisation in public and political discourse. When asked which of the institutions they trusted most in Ireland, 34% chose the Irish Government, 26% said they trusted the EU, but a significant majority of 40% stated "none of the above".

As we come to the end of our presentation and with the European Parliament elections only days away, it is reassuring that 88% of respondents believe it is important to vote in the elections, with men and women nearly equally supportive, at 88% and 87% respectively. However, with Irish voter turnout lower than the European average in 2019, especially among younger voters, we cannot be complacent. In recent months European Movement Ireland has been actively promoting our Can Vote, Will Votecampaign and promoting awareness around the elections through information stands in third-level institutions, town halls in the three constituencies, as well as via our ongoing social media and in-person engagement with the Irish public.

At this pivotal time for Europe, the Irish public’s continued high support for EU membership is welcome. Nevertheless, the less favourable findings in a number of areas are of concern and serve as a timely reminder of the continual need for public engagement, dialogue and communication on EU affairs.

Colm Brophy (Dublin South West, Fine Gael)
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Thank you very much for your contributions. Regarding the 88% who believe it is important to vote, I hope to God that when they all get a chance on 7 June, they remember how they answered. If I remember correctly, we were at about 50% in 2019. Let us hope for higher than that.

Brendan Howlin (Wexford, Labour)
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I welcome the witnesses. It is always good to have factual research as opposed to opinions which are often assumed to be facts. This is helpful. I would like to drill into a number of issues, if I may. One of the issues that is very important to us as a committee is the perspective of the Irish people on whether the EU is moving in the right direction. Of course, from my perspective I do not mean moving right but in the correct direction. It is worrying that there is a significant drop in the number of people who believe that, from 58% to 49%. It is less than half, meaning a majority is of the view that it is not moving in the correct direction. There are several main negatives and I am interested in hearing the witnesses’ perspective on them.

One is the issue of migration and dissatisfaction with the EU’s response to it. How intertwined is the people’s view of the domestic situation with the EU’s response? How many people would actually be aware of the EU’s response or the details of the EU migrant pact, for example, as opposed to being aware of the fact there are tents on the canals and more than 1,000 adults here who have no accommodation? How many are assuming that is a European issue as opposed to a domestic one? I am interested in hearing the witnesses’ take on that. Would it be possible in future analyses to disaggregate those two issues?

My second question relates to the EU’s role in the ongoing horror of Gaza. Very significant numbers – 64% in the Republic and 72% in Northern Ireland – believe the EU has got this wrong. A lot of that would be conditioned by the initial response of the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, who a majority in this House believe went peremptorily to Israel to pledge support for whatever it might do. What it did, obviously, has been horrible. Have the witnesses drilled down further into the actuality of that? Obviously, the domestic view would be very different from the mainstream and Ireland has played a very constructive role, through the Tánaiste, in trying to build a different perspective within the European Union, with some significant success. The announcement by two further EU member states and Norway of recognition is important in that regard. I am interested in the witnesses’ take on that.

I have two more brief questions, one of which is on the united Ireland issue. I was intrigued by the divergence of views North and South, which was the same as last year. It is one thing to ask people if they would support a united Ireland but quite another to ask them if they envisage one actually happening. It is a different question. The question asked was whether people envisaged it happening in the next ten years. Only one quarter of people in the Republic who answered that question said “Yes”, whereas almost half of the respondents in the North said that they did envisage it. Is it simply the timeline or is there anything else at play? Is it simply that the timeline in the question conditioned the response or is it more substantial, in terms of people having concerns about it? We have not drilled into that.

My final question relates to defence co-operation. I am extremely surprised at the figure that is presented here. The question referenced in the document is, “Do you think Ireland should invest more in defence and security co-operation with the EU?” According to the analysis, 56% of those in the Republic said “Yes” while only 30% said “No”. That is a figure that surprises me.

Colm Brophy (Dublin South West, Fine Gael)
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Before the witnesses answer, regarding a specific part of what Deputy Howlin asked regarding the direction in which the EU is going, I am interested in the phraseology used. As Deputy Howlin said, there is a lot of dissatisfaction around the Gaza situation and the initial response of the European Commission to that. Do the witnesses feel from their research that influenced the answers given? Did the researchers phrase the question such that they could separate out the issues? There is a separate question later on but I am wondering how much influence the current or immediate bombshell situation in Gaza has had in terms of people perceiving it as a really bad response by Europe as opposed to the more long-term understanding of how Europe is moving.

Ms Noelle O'Connell:

I thank Deputy Howlin and the Cathaoirleach for the questions. Both Deputies touched on the issue of the direction of the EU and the sentiment around that. It might be useful to clarify the methodology used in the poll. We polled 1,200 people in the South and 1,200 in the North, giving a total of 2,400 respondents across the various demographics and age profiles, between 26 and 28 March. That was when the fieldwork took place. In terms of the EU moving in the right direction, the challenge with the poll, which we have been conducting since 2013, is to ensure a level of consistency in the questions we pose so that we can analyse and track changes across the years. Of course, they are very blunt and concise statements, so delving down into them can be a little bit of a challenge. This year the response to the question on the EU moving in the right direction was the most significant. Last year, 58% agreed that it was moving in the right direction.

The same number of people in Northern Ireland felt the EU was moving in the right direction. There was an increase, from 15% to 24%, in the number of people in the South who said they did not believe it was moving in the right direction, and an increase of 5% in the number of people in Northern Ireland who said that. The difference is, give or take, 9% on each side. It is almost like a swing of 18 percentage points, which is of course something we in European Movement Ireland would not welcome. We would rather see continuing correspondingly high levels of support and belief that the EU is moving in the right direction. There is of course no doubt that the reality of the situation and how the EU has struggled to formulate and get a cohesive response to the horrific situation in the Middle East has contributed to that finding.

More broadly, in respect of some of the performance issues I would have thought people felt the EU was performing more strongly on the environment, given the EU green deal and climate change agenda which has occupied the current Parliament and Commission mandate for many years. Yet, only 10% or 12% believe it is strongest on that.

Before I hand over to Ms Hayes on migration and Israel-Gaza, defence is an interesting question. Last year, 49% of people believed Ireland should invest more in its security and defence co-operation. That has increased to 56% of people this year agreeing. The number was at its highest, at 59%, in 2022, around the time of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We are seeing an upward trajectory in the number of people being more alert and mindful of the wider defence and security co-operation question. It is something we see when we have politically non-partisan town hall debates and engagements around the country as part of our Can Vote, Will Vote campaign. There is growing recognition of the increasingly complex geopolitical world order we are living in and the role of security and defence in that regard. Irish people are more open to having difficult conversations around this issue.

Ms Lorna Hayes:

I thank the committee members for the questions and comments. On the reflections on migration, it is an interesting point. We conducted our poll in late March, precisely at the time the Minister for Justice sought Cabinet approval to look for the approval of the Oireachtas to opt into the pact. That was very much on the public agenda and in the media news cycle at the time we conducted the poll. There is likely to be some connection.

We are also analysing social media, including conversations on migration and the connection to the EU policy or pact at that time, in the past few weeks and in the run-up to the elections. We have seen people mention the pact, especially at that time. We are trying to see whether that connection continued or if it was a factor just when the issue was in the news. People who are unhappy about the issue of migration and asylum seekers, Ireland accepting asylum seekers and the connection to housing or accommodation of refugees have also referred to the pact and mentioned the EU imposing obligations on Ireland and that we should reject it, opt out and so on. I would not be able to quantify the level of that conversation. It is something we are exploring. We also want to understand how much the Irish public relates one to the other.

In terms of Israel and Gaza, the Deputy's reflections on that are very much accurate. In many countries, not just in Ireland, citizens are taking quite a different position from that of their governments and representatives with, by and large, many citizens protesting for months and demanding an end to the horrors and suffering being inflicted on the Palestinian people. The contrast between the response of the EU to what has happened or is happening in Ukraine and its response to Gaza has not been lost on the Irish public. I am sure the Irish public, as the Deputy said, will have noted how the Government has been ahead. The Government called for a ceasefire long before the EU did so. When some member states cut their funding to UNRWA, the Government increased its funding. Ireland, Spain, Belgium and others have pushed for the recognition of the State of Palestine and so on. That will not have been lost on the Irish public.

It is very hard for us to determine if we can connect this to the response on there being a reduction in support or opinion on whether the EU is moving in the right direction. It is likely to have some impact, but there could be questions or areas we have not covered in our poll that link to why people responded that way.

Colm Brophy (Dublin South West, Fine Gael)
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Thank you very much. We will move on to Deputy Ó Murchú.

Ruairí Ó Murchú (Louth, Sinn Fein)
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As Deputy Howlin said, it is worth having some sort of information in front of us. In the last question-and-answer session, the witnesses dealt with some of this. They could probably do a deep dive on any of the individual issues raised. There are probably 14 supplementary questions, but I do not know whether someone is going to sit and do that work for three hours. I would really appreciate if they did. We probably need more detail on some of these questions.

Polling figures for the North are considerably higher in terms of what is generally required there compared with what is required here. A number of extra bases are being covered and there are demographic factors, or whatever term you want to use. Is a sample size of 1,200 sufficient?

I do not think anyone is shocked by the question on whether Ireland should remain a member of the EU. We have had a very fairly decent example of what leaving the EU leads to. Another question was whether the EU is moving in the right direction. If the questions had stopped there, we would all have said that the follow-up questions relate to everything, with migration at the top of the list at the moment.

I refer to the disgraceful way Ursula von der Leyen entered the conversation on Gaza. While the Governments of Ireland, Spain and others have been positive and have pushed in a particular direction, we have not seen the actions we would like to have seen. It has been stated that the thing the EU does best is trade. Until we something happens regarding the human rights conditions in the EU-Israel association agreement, it is very difficult for anybody to state that the EU is doing what needs to be done. I would have expected there would be unease about the question on whether the EU is going in the right direction.

On where the EU's performance is strongest, Europe and the EU is that far away from people. The witnesses said that in the right environment they would have expected the percentage to be higher. It can also relate to where they see the environment and how important it is. There have definitely been failings across Europe, domestically and at an international level. People will go with the headline figures on where they see failures. There is a criss-cross between what is domestic and what is international.

Deputy Howlin dealt with the issue of a united Ireland and the question on whether people think they will see it in the next ten years. That question had to be asked at the minute, but there is also a belief that we will only see this happen if someone is going to do the preparatory work. There could be four supplementary questions asked, including whether people want to see it, think it is viable or possible or whether the Government is doing enough to prepare for even the possibility of it. I could give my own answers on that, but I think the witnesses could work them out.

I will be delighted to see an 88% turnout in the European and local elections. That is positive.

There is that notion as well, even when talking to people, that there will be issues as to whether some of them will be registered and all the rest. It is good, however, that they start from the view that voting is important across the board. We have to work on the system we have to facilitate as many as possible. That is likely to be beyond the witnesses' remit at this time.

The relationship the North has with the EU could mean 14 different things. Someone could be quite happy to have less of a relationship and might see that as a good thing, whereas others will see a democratic deficit and whatever else.

More countries joining the EU has probably changed shape, even over the past two years. This is getting into the big one, so to speak. In talking about the EU's response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, defence and about where the Americans are, everyone is coming at that in a different way. There was huge solidarity and that is really good, but it is almost the supplementary questions that are needed regarding where people are at on all of it. Regarding US involvement in defence co-operation, again people will have varying views on all of that. I agree with Deputy Howlin in relation to-----

Colm Brophy (Dublin South West, Fine Gael)
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That is the fourth time you have agreed with the Vice Chair.

Ruairí Ó Murchú (Louth, Sinn Fein)
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I know. Should Ireland invest more in its security and defence co-operation with the EU? We have not invested sufficiently in our Defence Forces at the minute, no matter what people think, so the answer to that is "Yes". People in the Defence Forces have not been paid enough in recent years. There are definite issues with the European Union and the European project at the minute and Europe has to deal with those. Regarding the questions, unfortunately-----

Colm Brophy (Dublin South West, Fine Gael)
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Now we are going to-----

Ruairí Ó Murchú (Louth, Sinn Fein)
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Here is my question. It is a lot more complex. As was said earlier, the witnesses have been provided with some anecdotal or added information. As difficult as it is, every one of these needs a subheading so-----

Colm Brophy (Dublin South West, Fine Gael)
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Thank you, Deputy Ó Murchú. We got the gist of it. That is a fairly page-by-page critique of the survey in the Deputy's contribution. Does Ms O'Connell wish to respond in a general way on one or two of the comments?

Ms Noelle O'Connell:

I thank Deputy Ó Murchú for an excellent synopsis of our poll. I will pick up on a couple of points that might be useful for us to delve into a little more deeply. Interestingly, the most recent Eurobarometer poll, which was at a similar time, showed that when citizens of the 27 member states were asked what areas of concern were most pressing for them that they wished the EU to act on, in Ireland, 42% stated migration, making Ireland the highest percentage, while across the EU the average was 24%. It was interesting to see that correlation in terms of migration borne out in our poll as well.

On trade, last year we celebrated the 30th anniversary of the Single Market. That recognition of the importance of the business, economics and trade perspective of the EU was certainly borne out in our findings.

The question on Northern Ireland is a very interesting and important one to pose. For us, it is important we are able to do this poll both North and South. Taking the Deputy's point about the sample group of 1,200 people, we commission an independent polling company to do it. The guidance is 1,200, which is pretty standard. On the subject of Northern Ireland, as part of our work of communicating and engaging on all aspects of all things European, we accept invitations and are delighted to speak at different political party events, non-party conferences and seminars. I was invited to speak at the New Ireland Commission in Newry and it was absolutely fascinating. To be honest with the committee, there were about 50 people in the room and there was a level of sadness and recognition that, for the first time in 45 years, they were not going to be able to vote on Friday, 7 June in the European Parliament elections. At the same time that I and two of my colleagues from Northern Ireland were in Newry, the rest of our European Movement Ireland colleagues were in Galway doing our Midlands-North-West European Parliament town hall event. There was recognition here too. One of the suggestions came from some of the members of the audience in Galway about whether one MEP seat should be given to the North. It was interesting that it featured as part of the discussion and recognised the fact that, on Friday, 7 June, for the first time, people in Northern Ireland will not be voting.

Regarding the united Ireland question and Deputy Ó Murchú's point, people in the North have had a greater opportunity to have these conversations and they have thought more deeply about it. There is a lot we can look at, perhaps at what lessons Germany has learned from it. There is a lot we can look at in that regard as well.

On the issue of the EU being far away from people, that is something we are continually working on to try to redress and ensure people have ownership and an opportunity to input, shape and influence what type of European Union we all want to live in. Regarding the 88%, we hope people will hand in their homework on Friday, 7 June and turn out and vote. It is geography and maths paper 2 and about 60,000 leaving certificate students are going to be doing those on that day, but we really want to see an increase in voter turnout on Friday, 7 June because it is important for people to exercise their right to vote and to have their say in influencing who we elect to represent us in Brussels and Strasbourg.

Seán Haughey (Dublin Bay North, Fianna Fail)
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I thank the witnesses for coming in yet again and sharing this research with us. It is a very timely piece of work given, as was mentioned, we are on the eve of the European Parliament elections. There is no doubt it has caught some trends which need further analysis by us and others. Several people have mentioned the 88% who say it is important to vote, and we know that is not going to happen, although we hope it does. Local elections are taking place on the same day, as we know. It is encouraging to see some of the European issues being debated actively at this time, in particular on security and defence and migration, among others. Again, this research is timely in that regard. An overall message, however, must be that the European Union needs to communicate its message better to citizens, given the overall findings of the research. Our secretariat has summarised the entire poll findings as indicating a general trend of declining confidence in the direction of the European Union, its response to international conflict and its management of the migrant crisis. It also states the findings indicate increasing support for EU-related security and co-operation. That is a good summary of the findings.

A lot of questions have been asked already. I want to take up two. On the EU international response, we all agree that the 19% satisfaction rating relating to the Israel-Gaza conflict is not surprising. The 33% rating regarding Ukraine, however, is surprising. The EU has been totally unified on that and has been very clear on what it wants to do, but only 33% are satisfied. Could there be something else going on there relating to fatigue with the Ukraine crisis? Could it also relate to the Ukrainian beneficiaries of temporary protection, that there is a bit of weariness arising form that? Regardless, it is surprising. That is the point I am making.

The second point relates to the discussion of the emboldened far right in a range of countries which have been listed in the research. There is also reference to populism in the contribution.

Taking the research as a whole, does Ms O'Connell find any evidence of an emboldened far right here? I guess we will know soon enough on 8 June but so far in this research, did Ms O'Connell see any evidence that these European trends are manifesting themselves here?

Ms Noelle O'Connell:

I thank the Deputy. In terms of Ukraine, if I can start with that one, that was certainly one of concern. The Deputy is correct in that it is something that has been mentioned to us and picked up on at a Brussels level. This particularly finding was remarked on. Is there an element of concern in terms of fatigue? We are in the third year of the war and the horrific Russian invasion of Ukraine. How is it going to be resolved? What does that look like? As the Deputy said, the EU was remarkably cohesive, unified and consistent in its response and its approach to that. It is something that we have remarked upon, that comparison with Israel-Gaza, and the fact that the levels have dropped is certainly something of concern. I would suggest members of the committee scan the QR code on the poll to get the full gender, demographic and regional breakdown. I would encourage members to look at the minutiae of that.

In terms of populism and the far right, it is concerning. Some of the work that we are seeing on misinformation and disinformation and some of the sentiments and the views coming across are things that we would not have seen previously. We would not have seen the levels of physical threat and potential disruption. These are my third European Parliament elections, going around the country, encouraging people to vote and having non-partisan candidate debates. We are one of the NGOs that tries to provide an opportunity for all candidates to engage and discuss. These are probably the most challenging European Parliament elections in terms of the polarisation of public discourse and debate and dialogue. I do not think I need to expand on that any further to the committee because they are far more familiar and indeed probably subjected to it more than what we would see.

More broadly Deputy Haughey, in terms of the far right across the EU, it is interesting when we talk to some of our colleagues and counterparts across the different European movement councils and the different EU member states. The challenges they face are a salutary reminder to me and to all of us here in European Movement Ireland of some of the challenges we face. Recently, our European Movement International issued a very public call regarding the undermining of a free and democratic press in Italy. Italy was one of the founding member states of the EU.

Those challenges are certainly there. We saw the horrific assassination attempt on Prime Minister Fico, but also how pro-European civil society organisations face a challenge and a struggle in member states in terms of promoting an active and participatory democracy. That challenge is there and all the polls are showing a rise in the far right in the likely composition and make up of the next parliament. That will definitely lead to an erosion of that consensus building and trying to get an effective, efficient and functioning European Parliament and that interlinkage with the European Commission. I think these elections are going to be really challenging in that regard.

Seán Haughey (Dublin Bay North, Fianna Fail)
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A bumpy road ahead.

Ms Noelle O'Connell:

A bumpy road ahead. If I may, I congratulate the secretariat on its excellent analysis of our poll in a very succinct manner. I do not know if Ms Hayes wanted to come in and follow up on any of that.

Ms Lorna Hayes:

There is one point we have not really touched on. We noted that throughout this year's poll the "don't know" response was quite significant across the questions, but particularly notable on the question of whether the EU is moving in the right direction. It was also notable on the questions on EU performance in different policy areas and on Russia, Ukraine and Gaza, and security and defence. That was quite significant in those questions. That also begs the question on how civil society and the Government are engaging the public and informing them. We need to think a bit more about how we reach people in the right way through the right mediums.

What was also surprising for us was in those "don't knows", in every single question women selected "don't know" in a far greater percentage than men. That would require more gender analysis. We cannot give an explanation for that trend but it was something that we had not seen before or at least noted before. That is really important as well and something we need to consider.

Ms Noelle O'Connell:

Just as a follow-on to that, what is interesting is normally we see the 18-24 demographic and the 55 plus always being the most pro-Europe but now we are seeing a widening demographic in what I would have termed in previous appearances before the committee "the squeezed middle". That used to be, when we were talking about it previously, the 35 to 54 age bracket. That is seeping downwards into the 20s now. This year's poll has been particularly interesting and I would encourage the members to download the full deck from Amárach to delve a little bit further into some of the findings. Ms Hayes's point on the gender and the "don't knows" is really well made.

Obviously, the margin of error is around 2.8% or 2.6%, but the fact there are high percentages of "don't knows" in the responses to so many of the questions reinforces the importance of continually engaging, debating, discussing and interrogating all aspects of our relationship with the EU. We cannot afford to be complacent, notwithstanding the very high 84% support.

Colm Brophy (Dublin South West, Fine Gael)
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I thank the witnesses. In conclusion, from my own perspective, there are a couple of things that always stand out in this and we discussed this at the last one as well. I find the figure on how the European Movement Ireland gets their information and the fact that social media accounted for 10% ,and 13% on the female side, strikes me as remarkably low in this day and age. The Northern Ireland figures are a little bit higher, but it is interesting considering we are constantly told of how information is now provided and how people now access it. I appreciate we have to look at the drop down into the ages because it is probably 0% of over 65s and it is probably thirty something percent in the 18 to 24 category, but it is interesting that there is still that very substantial link back to traditional media.

The bog standard general first question is always whether we should remain a member of the EU. On the younger age group perspective, it is interesting that is the highest cohort of support at 91%. That is a positive thing in lots of ways. Methodologies have to be decided and what is done with questions has to be decided, but if one randomly picks any 1,200 people and asks them questions about how the European system functions, there are people, without being disparaging, working in it and elected into it who I doubt know half the time how the thing works. That is not an insult to them and it is not an insult to the EU, it is just that there is no roughly equivalent structure anywhere in the world. It is a unique structure and it is put together in such a way as to facilitate the co-operation of 27 member states. There are a whole host of areas that make it incredibly difficult in terms of how it functions and how it is driven.

I said earlier, in conjunction with Deputy Howlin's question, that I think a lot of attitudinal questions are driven by what is the perceived issue of the day and asking how that is perceived within Ireland, as the European Movement Ireland is doing, or within other states. That drives the whole definition of what people think of the European Union and how they think it is performing.

The situation relating to Israel and Gaza was overwhelmingly the issue of late 2023 and early 2024 in terms of shaping opinion about how the European Union is working. If we take out the "don't know" responses and look at where the EU is going strongest, and I believe the "don't know" figures are very reasonable for a number of reasons, the environment is still listed as the second issue. Allowing for some of the complexity of this, it is interesting that the environment still comes up. I imagine if we were to conduct the same survey in Lithuania, Estonia or Latvia, defence and security would be close to 46% and not down at 5%.

It is interesting that migration is an issue on which people think the EU is very poor. It says a lot about the level of knowledge that people have about how European migration is handled at EU level. For better or for worse, depending on where we are on the political spectrum, people would be quite surprised to realise that in actual fact control of migration at EU level is stricter than what the US imposes at the border with Mexico. This is the type of fact that is not known. It throws up these very interesting answers.

As always, it is a very interesting snapshot in time. It is a very interesting collection of information. We can try to drill down, as we have, to figure it out. I always say that I would love if European Movement Ireland did some qualitative research with groups as a follow-up to the poll to tease out some of the questions and add to the information. We would then have not just the quantitative information. The poll opens up so many questions. On flicking through it we can pick so many areas where we can wonder what the answers mean.

I thank the witnesses for providing us with the poll. We really do appreciate it. I appreciate the time of the witnesses and that of the interns who came in today. I hope they found it an informative and interesting session. I know some of them. It is always good to have this exchange. Today we are launching one of our own reports and we are going to that now.