Leo Varadkar (Dublin West, Fine Gael)
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1009.To ask the Minister for Employment Affairs and Social Protection given her Department's large over-estimation of the cost of new measures in recent years (details supplied), whether she has initiated any review or actions to better understand the reasons for these over-estimates, whether she believes they might be cultural to the Department and if she can give any reassurance that the cost of the social welfare package for 2025 will not also be over-estimated or over-stated.[35582/24]

Heather Humphreys (Cavan-Monaghan, Fine Gael)
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It is widely recognised that forecasting the cost of new Budget measures is an exercise fraught with uncertainty.

In the case of measures referenced by the Deputy, all involve:

• the costings of measures where a new benefit/service was being offered to a new, and sometimes unknown, cohort of the population.

• a costing for which the Department’s data was limited to current recipients or those with whom it offered existing benefits or services.

• costings on which the data required to estimate or model the eligible population was unavailable.

• costings where, even when the eligible population is identifiable, the behavioural response to the roll-out of the measure is impossible to anticipate, particularly in the first year.

All of the measures concerned were discussed and agreed between the then Ministers for Social Protection, the then Ministers for Public Expenditure, NDP Delivery and Reform and ultimately agreed by Government as part of the Budget.

Inevitably, given the uncertainty engendered by these factors, it will always be possible to select some new measures over the past decade where the expected costs are higher or lower than what transpired.

As of the end August 2024, the Department’s financial position in 2024 year to date is within 0.009% of its estimated expenditure for 2024, to the tune of some €17 billion, a budget which included estimation of expenditure for existing level of service, 8 lump sums and 13 new budget measures as part of Budget 2024.

In February, the Parliamentary Budget Office published its second annual report assessing Budget measure costing methodologies across Departments. This report assesses budget costings across all Departments and factors in their analysis of the various dimensions of uncertainty associated with such projections, including data uncertainty, behavioural uncertainty and modelling uncertainty.

Across 13 measures, each rated across 3 dimensions, giving 39 points of analysis, my Department’s estimates were independently rated as 21 elements of low uncertainty, 17 elements of medium uncertainty, and only 1 element of high uncertainty.

As Minister, I certainly do not want to see good Budget proposals curtailed or diluted due to over-estimation of the cost. While there are certain examples where the Department has over-estimated costs, there are other examples where it has under-estimated. I can assure the Deputy that my Department makes every effort to accurately identify the costs of new measures, notwithstanding the complexity inherent in the exercise.

It would appear that the Parliamentary Budget Office is of the view that it does so to a very satisfactory level.

Robert Troy (Longford-Westmeath, Fianna Fail)
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1010.To ask the Minister for Employment Affairs and Social Protection if she will commit to a full review of the capital disregard for all social welfare payments given the rate of inflation since these thresholds were last reviewed.[35587/24]

Heather Humphreys (Cavan-Monaghan, Fine Gael)
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Means test rules in my Department are kept under regular review and I have introduced a number of significant changes in recent years including:

• Providing for higher income disregards. These disregards ensure that, where people are in receipt of a social assistance payment and are working, their income from work up to the level of the income disregard, is not assessed in the means test.
• Expanding the list of agri-environmental schemes that qualify for a disregard, and as part of Budget 2023 I increased this disregard.
• Introduced a Rent a Room disregard, for all Social Protection schemes, to enable recipients to support those arriving from Ukraine, and others, in a tight housing market. Earlier this year, I extended that provision for a further two years.
• From January 2023, I introduced significant changes to eligibility rules for Fuel Allowance, including a new means threshold for people aged 70 years and over - €500 for a single person and €1,000 for a couple. These changes resulted in an additional 35,000 households joining the scheme so far.
• I also significantly increased the income and capital disregards for Carer's Allowance. This enables more carers with modest incomes to become eligible for the scheme and allows carers and their families to earn more from employment while retaining their carer’s payment.

In the case of the means assessment for a personal rate of the State Pension (Non-contributory), the first €20,000 (€40,000 for a couple) of capital an applicant holds is fully disregarded; the next €10,000 is assessed at €1 per thousand, the next €10,000 is assessed at €2 per thousand, with the remainder assessed at €4 per thousand.

My Department is currently undertaking a broad review of means testing. This review is ongoing and the outcome of the review will be used to inform decisions regarding any further changes to means testing, although all prospective changes to means testing arrangements will have to be considered in both an overall policy and budgetary context.

Danny Healy-Rae (Kerry, Independent)
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1011.To ask the Minister for Employment Affairs and Social Protection to consider a review of the requirements for fuel allowance (details supplied); and if she will make a statement on the matter.[35589/24]

Heather Humphreys (Cavan-Monaghan, Fine Gael)
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The Fuel Allowance is a payment of €33 per week for 28 weeks (a total of €924 each year) from late September to April, at an estimated cost of €382 million in 2024. The purpose of this payment is to assist these households with their energy costs. Only one allowance is paid per household.

The Fuel Allowance is paid to social welfare recipients such as pensioners, people with disabilities, lone parents and the long-term unemployed in recognition of their long-term financial dependence on their social welfare payment for all or most of their income. People on long term payments are unlikely to have additional resources of their own and are more vulnerable to poverty, including energy poverty. It is for this reason that my Department allocates additional payments, supports and resources such as Fuel Allowance to this cohort of claimants.

While schemes such as Fuel Allowance are reviewed on an ongoing basis, there are no plans to change the qualifying criteria for Fuel Allowance for those aged under 70 to allow for Fuel Allowance to be paid to those who are in employment and who are not in receipt of a qualifying Social Welfare payment.

My Department does provide Additional Needs Payments as part of the Supplementary Welfare Allowance scheme for people who have essential expenses, which they cannot meet from their own resources. Additional Needs Payments, where appropriate, can be paid to people who face difficulties in meeting fuel bills.

The decision process involves consideration of the need presented and the ability of the person and their household to meet that need. This entails an assessment, as opposed to a specific means test, of an applicant’s weekly household income, their savings and investments, their outgoings and the type of assistance needed. Other State supports that may already be available to the person are also considered. This ensures that support is provided to people with the greatest financial need.

Any person who considers that they may have an entitlement to an Additional Needs Payment is encouraged to contact their local community welfare service. There is a National Community Welfare Contact Centre in place - 0818-607080 - which will direct callers to the appropriate office. In addition, applications can be made online via www.mywelfare.ie.

I trust that this clarifies the matter for the Deputy.