Jennifer Whitmore (Wicklow, Social Democrats)
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65. To ask the Minister for Communications, Climate Action and Environment how the Government will meet the climate targets of a 51% reduction by 2030. [27727/24]

Gary Gannon (Dublin Central, Social Democrats)
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The Environmental Protection Agency, EPA, has analysed the Government's climate action plan and found that if every measure were fully implemented, we would only reduce our emissions by 29%, rather than our legally binding target of 51%. This is the second year in a row the EPA has come to this conclusion, so nothing the Government has announced in the past 12 months has led to a verifiable increase in emissions reductions. How does the Minister plan to change this record in his last few months in office?

Eamon Ryan (Dublin Bay South, Green Party)
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The roadmap for achieving a 51% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 is outlined and developed in successive annual climate action plans which set out detailed strategies for delivery across multiple sectors. Our ambitious 2030 target is underpinned by legally binding carbon budgets and sectoral emissions ceilings established under the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development (Amendment) Act 2021.

The Climate Action Plan 2024 outlines a range of measures across key sectors to drive emissions reductions. In the electricity sector, we aim to increase renewable energy generation to 80% of electricity demand by 2030, including targeting 9 GW of onshore wind, at least 5 GW of offshore wind and 8 GW of solar capacity. In the transport sector, we are aiming for a 20% reduction in total vehicle kilometres travelled and for 845,000 electric vehicles to be on the road by 2030. In agriculture, key measures include reducing chemical nitrogen use, improving animal breeding for lower methane emissions and diversifying land use.

However, current projections indicate a significant challenge requiring an acceleration in implementation. The Environmental Protection Agency's with existing measures, WEM, scenario projects that 2030 emissions will only be 11% lower than 2018 levels. Under the with additional measures, WAM, scenario, which incorporates most policies and measures in the Climate Action Plan 2023, emissions are projected to be, as the Deputy said, 29% lower in 2030 than in 2018. The EPA’s projection also indicates that if all the unmodelled policies and measures in the climate action plan and yet unallocated emissions savings were accounted for, the projected emissions reduction in 2030 would be 42%. To accelerate progress to our target, the climate action plan 2024 sets out a range of important actions, including the acceleration of the deployment of renewable energy, enhancing agricultural measures based on the latest Teagasc marginal abatement cost curve, and implementing more aggressive transport modal shift strategies. The plan also introduces a strengthened governance framework including improved monitoring and reporting systems to track progress more effectively and enable timely interventions where needed.

Additional information not given on the floor of the House

A key component of the strategy to meet the 2030 target is addressing the 26 MtCO2eq of unallocated emissions savings in the second carbon budget period from 2026 to 2030. The Climate Action Plan 2024 outlines an approach to allocate these savings, focusing on five key pathways: economy-wide energy efficiency and demand management; accelerating the future energy system; implementing sustainable food and agriculture practices; deploying carbon capture and storage technologies; and supporting carbon removals.

The land use, land use change and forestry, LULUCF, sector plays a crucial role in Ireland's climate strategy, but it presents unique challenges. Due to significant fluctuations in the baseline emissions and ongoing inventory refinements, the Climate Action Plan 2024 proposes a new approach for this sector. This includes setting ambitious activity targets, such as increasing afforestation rates to 8,000 ha per year by 2030 and aligning with EU LULUCF regulations. This approach aims to provide a more stable framework for emissions reduction in this complex sector.

To bridge the remaining gap to the 51% target, the climate action plan seeks to harness the potential of innovation and emerging technologies. This includes exploring green hydrogen, advancing bioenergy solutions and investigating carbon removal technologies. The plan also stresses the importance of behavioural change and public engagement, recognising that achieving the target will require efforts from all sectors of society.

The Climate Action Plan 2024 acknowledges that meeting the 51% reduction target by 2030 is a significant challenge which will require unprecedented levels of action and investment. It calls for a whole- of-government approach, enhanced co-ordination between national, regional, and local levels and increased public private partnerships. The plan recognises the need for flexibility and adaptability, recognising that strategies may need to be adjusted as new technologies emerge and as the impacts of current measures become clearer.

Gary Gannon (Dublin Central, Social Democrats)
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We do not want to politicise this issue. Climate is too important for that. It is the Environmental Protection Agency and its analysis which has shown us we are missing the targets. I presume none of us take issue with its figures. As much as we talk a good game about the need for climate action and the importance of reducing emissions, with which we in the Social Democrats are, of course, in full agreement, rhetoric alone will not reduce our emissions. We need detailed plans across a variety of sectors and laser-focused implementation. We also need to ensure impacted industries like agriculture are fully supported as they make the necessary transitions. With all due respect, the Minister's will to reduce emissions will not achieve it alone. We need plans, resources and implementations. The Government has mere months left in office; of that there is no question. The question is what detailed plans are going to be implemented in that time to bridge the huge gap which exists in its climate action plan.

Eamon Ryan (Dublin Bay South, Green Party)
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The heavy lifting has to be done in the renewable sector. I refer to the debate I had earlier with Deputy O'Rourke regarding the delivery of the likes of offshore wind and the solar revolution that is taking place. If we can meet our targets in this area, with some 22 GW of power from renewables by the end of this decade, that would bridge half of the gap. That is the most significant first fundamental measure. The delivery of those offshore renewable projects in particular will give us a scale of power that will allow us to switch off the gas generation and meet our targets.

Transport and agriculture are two of the areas in which we face the greatest challenges. Demand management measures, which we are starting to see being introduced across the country, will be one of the significant developments. The Deputy will be aware that, this summer, through traffic is being taken out of Dublin city centre. We need to replicate that in other locations, particularly in those areas where we are really enhancing the public transport offering with bus services and so on. Accelerating delivery of demand management measures that can improve public transport is the second area in which there is the greatest potential. Agriculture will also have to go further and do more. I believe it can. People have been surprised by some of the speed at which agriculture is starting to reduce emissions, with a drop of some 30% in fertiliser use over the past two years. That was never modelled or expected by the EPA but it has actually happened. We need to go further than that.

In the industrial area, one of the areas in which big reductions can be achieved is through the likes of carbon capture and storage. For incinerators, cement plans and other large industrial users, it will not be an easy thing to do but it is absolutely achievable by the end of this decade. Some of these additional measures are the way we can close the gap.

Gary Gannon (Dublin Central, Social Democrats)
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While I do not doubt for a second the Minister's vigour and belief in how we close the gaps, we are specifically looking for the kind of plans contained within this Government which are in keeping with the figures projected by the EPA. The reality is the climate action plan has a big hole. By the sounds of it, there are no concrete plans - none the EPA can measure - to address it. The experts are in the EPA. We talk often about the need to listen to the experts. The cavalier attitude the Government has adopted to our emissions targets is regrettable. We talk about the change in the traffic transport plan in Dublin. There are questions about that but I am supportive. I do not see the necessary increase in bus routes to match the ambition in this regard.

Anyone listening to the glass-half-full assessment this morning would think we are on course to exceed our climate targets. The truth is we are on course to massively miss them. It is a failure of Government. Not only that but it also sets the next Government up for almost certain failure because the targets, which will have to be met in just five years, will be far too large and therefore unachievable. I thank the Minister for his contribution.

Eamon Ryan (Dublin Bay South, Green Party)
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The EPA is in a difficult position. For some of the policy measures we are planning, as I said, it needed to see back-up, financial commitment or other Government measures so that they would be seen as deliverable. Anaerobic digestion is one example of an area that was not easy to model or expect to deliver, but we will deliver it. It is one of the ways people can actually diversify incomes in agriculture. The amount of imported fossil fuel gas and emissions that come from it can be reduced. While we are in a very tight timeframe there, I had a meeting last week with the sector people who are interested in investing in this. Previously, the EPA could not model or project what we could deliver in bio-methane because we did not have the strategy out. We now have that strategy. I am very confident a scale of investment will be seen in this area. This is one example of a project which previously was not easy to model or estimate. We can now show real progress because we have a strategy and there will be funding arrangements from the climate, nature and infrastructure fund, which gives funding certainty for the next five years. That is what is needed. It is being delivered as one example of a project that was not previously modelled but can be delivered on.