Eoin Ó Broin (Dublin Mid West, Sinn Fein) | Oireachtas source

I thank everybody for their presentations. While today's session is obviously primarily on the national planning framework and climate change, given that the Cabinet agreed the revised housing targets and that those targets were the subject of my last exchange with Mr. Hogan when he was with us on the national planning framework in July, I will start with some questions on that area.

It is interesting that in his description of the public consultation, Mr. Hogan noted that there were a lot of submissions indicating that an annual average target of 50,000 was too low and suggesting targets of 60,000 to 70,000, which is in line with the recommendations of the Housing Commission. Looking at the figures agreed by the Cabinet today - 41,000 new homes in 2025, 43,000 in 2026 and 48,000 in 2027 - it is really only in 2027 or early 2028 that the NPF proposes to move beyond the emerging demand identified by the ESRI. There is really no consideration of unmet demand or the deficit outlined by the Housing Commission until we hit 2028 and 2029. Taking just those first five years, an annual average of 50,000 will not even be reached. It will be 48,600. I just do not understand the rationale behind those figures.

I will pick up where we left off in July. When I asked Mr. Hogan to justify an annual average of 50,000, he seemed to indicate that this was based on the 44,000 the ESRI assessed to be the emerging demand and a reasonable assessment of unmet demand. This is even poorer than our previous discussion in its attention to unmet demand. What methodology was followed to come up with these numbers? Why were the Housing Commission's mid-range recommendations of approximately 15,000 for unmet demand not taken on board? It is clear a decision was taken not to include it. I am not going to have a row with Mr. Hogan about whether it should or should not have been included. I just want to understand why we have the figures we now have because, for every year unmet demand is not met, that unmet demand grows.

Therefore, we could be in a situation where, if the targets agreed by Cabinet today become the targets of the future Government and are met, unmet demand will continue to grow certainly until the second half of the next term of the Government and probably right to the end. That is very concerning. I am at a loss to understand the rationale behind the figures. That is the first question.