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Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Paschal Donohoe: I am also grateful for the opportunity to be here to present the stability programme update and to speak to the expenditure dimensions of it. As members all know, this is an important point in the annual budgetary cycle. From an expenditure perspective, it allows us to take stock of the significant and continued investment in our day-to-day public services and our infrastructure. It also...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Paschal Donohoe: I only have some of the information to which the Deputy refers. I will have to come back to her with the detail. It is information that I know will be readily available to the Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage and the Minister. I will endeavour to get it for her. On the 2024 Estimate, of the total capital budget available to the Department of Housing, Local Government...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Paschal Donohoe: Sure. I will.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Paschal Donohoe: I might comment on the expenditure element of that. Over the past two years in particular, the State, through various expenditure programmes, has stepped in to facilitate the better functioning of the private sector in the delivery of homes, and there are three main ways in which that is being done. First, there are the various funds the Minister, Deputy Darragh O'Brien, has in place to...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Paschal Donohoe: I accept the importance of the Deputy's point, and only earlier in the week, I presented a memorandum to the Government updating it on the delivery of the national development plan. It showed that cost-price inflation over the past two years has been very considerable. While the rate of increase has slowed in recent months, it is just a slower rate of increase as opposed to a decrease or a...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Paschal Donohoe: I will have to come back to the Deputy on that. I do not have the information on that for 2025 onwards but I am happy to check that for the Deputy and will revert to him.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Paschal Donohoe: Did the Deputy say constant cost?

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Paschal Donohoe: Okay.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Paschal Donohoe: I will have to come back to the Deputy on that. My officials are looking at that row at the moment. The Deputy may ask a few more questions and I will see whether I can come back to him later in the session.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Paschal Donohoe: That work is being done at the moment. Getting into what the ELS will be and what the provision will be for new measures will form the work of the summer economic statement. I hope we will be in a position to give the Deputy an indication of that clearly for 2025. That kind of information is not normally included in the SPU.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Paschal Donohoe: It is what we have used. However, we are reviewing that at the moment. It is prudent before beginning every Estimates process to look at what the learnings are from the assumptions that were made regarding ELS from last year's Estimates process. My Department is reviewing that at the moment. Again, that will then feed into the estimate we make regarding the level of ELS for next year.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Paschal Donohoe: We have laid that out until 2026. That is included. In terms of the non-windfall capital expenditure, it goes to €13.6 billion and then to €14.2 billion in 2026. If you add the windfall capital allocations for those two years to that, it takes us to a total figure of €14.35 billion, rising to €15.45 billion.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Paschal Donohoe: Could the Deputy explain the question to me again?

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Paschal Donohoe: Out of that increase - I am just doing the maths - between 2025 and 2026, it is around a €600 million increase in core capital. It goes from €13.6 billion to €14.2 billion.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Paschal Donohoe: It is laid out there. I have no doubt at all but that were we to try to meet the 5% spending rule for this year or next year, the Deputy would criticise us for trying to do that.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Paschal Donohoe: We have laid out-----

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Paschal Donohoe: It has.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Paschal Donohoe: Yes. In the budget, we will be able to lay out the detail of what is going where for the Department of housing and every other Department.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Paschal Donohoe: We have some understanding of what the detail is going to be. We know where funding is going for this year for different levels below the overall heading of housing. As I said, I am happy to come back to the Deputy with a bit more detail on that. However, it is not yet fully confirmed regarding what, for example, will be going to acquisition and to construction for the simple reason that...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Paschal Donohoe: I expect the private sector, with the momentum there at the moment, will be able to deliver a larger number of new homes in the time ahead. That should especially be the case if we begin to see an improvement in the interest rate environment across the next number of years and begin to see the issues that have been created by cost price inflation begin to moderate. That is a very reasonable...

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